Paul Finebaum sees some big changes looming for the ACC.
In an appearance Tuesday on McElroy and Cubelic in the Morning, the SEC Network analyst said the recent settlement of litigation pitting the ACC against Clemson and Florida State opens the door for change. The revenue distribution settlement lowers the exit fee teams must pay for leaving the conference.
According to ESPN, that exit fee is set at $165 million for 2026, but decreases by $18 million per year before leveling off at $75 million in 2030-31.
Finebaum expects a “couple of” ACC schools will defect as that latter date nears, but he praised conference commissioner Jim Phillips for negotiating the “best deal for the moment.”
“If you’re the commissioner of the ACC, you have to live in the moment,” Finebaum said (via On3.com). “Yeah, you plan for the future. But you can’t be too hung up on five, six, seven years from now because there’s a chance you won’t be the commissioner.
“I’m talking about Jim Phillips. He made the best deal for the moment. He had to stop the hammer. He had to stop the bleeding. He did that, but there is a due date, as you said. When that due date comes, it is going to be open season, I believe, on the ACC.
“It’s impossible to predict today because we’re still watching Oklahoma and Texas be digested into the SEC while the four in the Big Ten are — I just saw USC and UCLA compete for the Big Ten Championship in women’s basketball yesterday and I almost did a double take. But by the time we turn the calendar toward 2030, all that will be different. I think it’s very likely that the ACC loses a couple of schools.”
Of course, Finebaum isn’t the only one who sees ACC schools seeking better deals elsewhere. The conference has avoided the exodus of teams that hit the Pac-12, Big 12 and other conferences in recent years, largely as a result of the exorbitant exit fees schools faced. In fact, the ACC has been expanding, improbably adding Pacific coast (and former Pac-12) schools Stanford and California, along with SMU.
But Finebaum, like other observers, thinks the movement will be going in the other direction as those exit fees drop by the year.
“I don’t think there’s any doubt that the ACC put off the inevitable, and the inevitable is losing a couple of schools in the future,” Finebaum said.