Rivalry games, season opener, primetime—there’s a lot going on here. Dallas at Philly with a 7-point spread feels like a statement from the books, but the all-time TD market might not be quite so tidy. Some prices look baked in; a couple feel a touch loose. Maybe.
Eagles Dominate the Favorites List
Saquon Barkley sits atop the board at -205, which—given his likely red-zone workload—makes sense, even if the number’s a little rich for most slips. He should handle the short stuff. Jalen Hurts at -115 is basically a bet on pattern recognition: the tush push, the designed keepers, the general “oh right, he can do that” near the goal line.
Then there’s the receiver angle. A.J. Brown at +125 and DeVonta Smith at +160 are priced like co-headliners rather than backups to Barkley’s act. Reliable nfl predictions often favor teams with multiple receiving threats inside the 20, and Philly has two that win differently—Brown bullying tight coverage, Smith slicing it up with timing and routes. Either could be the right read on any given drive, which is both the fun and the headache.
Cowboys Offer Higher Payouts
Eagles vs Cowboys Touchdown Odds
| Player | Team | Odds | Role / Context |
| Saquon Barkley | Eagles | -205 | Heavy red-zone workload, short-yardage specialist. High likelihood, low payout. |
| Jalen Hurts | Eagles | -115 | Tush push, designed QB runs, sneaks near goal line. Pattern-based play. |
| A.J. Brown | Eagles | +125 | Physical receiver, excels in tight coverage. Strong value pick. |
| DeVonta Smith | Eagles | +160 | Route runner, timing-based, co-headliner with Brown. |
| CeeDee Lamb | Cowboys | +140 | Primary Dallas target, reliable in scramble plays. |
| George Pickens | Cowboys | +265 | New addition, odds reflect uncertainty in chemistry with Dak Prescott. |
| Dak Prescott | Cowboys | +750 / +850 | Occasional rushing TD, longshot but tempting at this price. |
Quarterback Rushing Upside
Dak Prescott floating between +750 and +850 is the kind of longshot that tempts you after a coffee. Quarterbacks don’t get many cracks at the stripe, but he does sneak one in here and there, especially when plays break or the call sheet gets frisky. The price reflects “possible, not probable,” which is fair.
Shop it, by the way. DraftKings has shown +750, and some other books drift toward +850. That may change by kickoff, so it’s worth checking twice.
Value Analysis and Strategy
Among the chalk, Brown and Smith look like the saner payouts for the risk. Barkley’s role is appealing but the -205 tax is steep, and Hurts has moved into that “almost even money” zone where you’re paying for reputation as much as usage. Brown at +125, in particular, feels like the best blend of volume and payback.
For Dallas, it’s a personality test: Lamb’s +140 is the comfort pick; Pickens at +265 is the ceiling play if he’s integrated into red-zone designs right away. You could argue both and not be wrong—it’s just different levels of tolerance for variance. Meanwhile, a rookie quarterback threw for over 300 yards, setting up an interesting future focus.
Parlays or pairings are another approach. A balanced angle might be one Eagles favorite (say, Brown) with a Cowboys flier (Pickens) to cover both game scripts: Philly control or a track meet that forces Dallas to push.
Final Betting Recommendations
The market leans Eagles—and probably for good reason given the number and venue—but that doesn’t erase Cowboys value entirely if the game stays tight longer than expected.
If you want something with a decent return and plausible path: A.J. Brown +125. For Dallas, Lamb remains the steady call at +140, while George Pickens at +265 is the swing if you’re betting on fast-tracked chemistry. Barkley’s -205 might hit, but the payout barely moves the needle unless you’re laddering or tying it to something else.