The Toronto Blue Jays may have played their way into a first-place tie with the New York Yankees, but Michael Kay is demanding a recount.
Wednesday afternoon, the Blue Jays were on the cusp of a first-place tie with the Yankees in the American League East, trailing by just one game. Yankees TV voice, Michael Kay, however, went on his ESPN New York Radio show and dismissed the idea of the Blue Jays being a first-place team.
“The Blue Jays are not a first-place team, I’m sorry,” Kay said definitively. “If you look at the run differential, the Yankees’ run differential is +105. The Blue Jays, after a 12-5 win, finally got in the positive yesterday, they’re +4. Do you realize, they should be a .500 team because of a +4 run differential? And the Yankees should have at least four or five more wins with a +105-run differential. They’re not playing great baseball. I’m sorry, they’re not.”
Wednesday night, the Blue Jays blew an eight-run lead to the Yankees before battling back to win the game 11-9, improving their run differential and successfully playing their way into a first-place tie for the division lead. As Kay’s old radio partner John Sterling would say, “that’s baseball, Suzyn.” Run differential can tell a story about a team’s season, but it doesn’t tell the entire story.
Are the Yankees the most complete team in the American League East? Yes. Should they win the division? Yes. But it’s entirely possible for a team with a worse run differential to finish in first place. It’s equally possible for a team with a negative run differential to make the playoffs.
The 2023 Marlins were in the playoffs with -57 run differential. The 2023 Arizona Diamondbacks went to the World Series with a -15-run differential in the regular season. Arizona won 90 games and went to the playoffs in 2007 with a -20-run differential. The San Diego Padres won the AL West in 2005 with a -42-run differential, and there are more examples, but you get the point.
Run differential can absolutely be a good way of measuring a team, but it’s win-loss differential that determines when a team is in first place. And despite the story the Blue Jays’ run differential is attempting to tell Michael Kay, Toronto is a first place team.