Bill Simmons isn’t the biggest fan of aggregated.
But there’s a reason why people listen when the Sports Guy talks about the NBA — especially when it comes to the league’s dealings at the highest levels.
Look no further that Simmons’ insight into the NBA’s media rights deal, in which he was clearly ahead of the curve on TNT being on the outside looking in. And one of The Ringer founder’s long-held beliefs based on his connections has been that it’s only a matter of time until the league expands to 32 teams, with new franchises likely placed in Las Vegas and Seattle.
It appears those plans have now hit a snag.
On the latest episode of The Bill Simmons Podcast, the show’s host discussed the latest buzz coming out of NBA Summer League with Zach Lowe. And when it comes to the potential for expansion, momentum has clearly stalled, with Simmons pointing to the league’s new 11-year, $77 billion media rights deal as the primary reason why.
“It just seemed like a lock it was gonna happen for the last few years and I think [NBA commissioner Adam] Silver wanted it to happen. I think there was a consortium of owners that wanted it to happen,” Simmons said. “This media deal was so big, I just think there’s owners that don’t want to give up money anymore.
“And it makes sense because cause however they rig it, you’re still giving up — it goes from 1/30th to 1/32nd for the media thing. So you’re giving up equity, you’re giving up value. So then the question will be, ‘well what am I getting to give up that value?’ And before when the franchise values were lower, it’s like, ‘well then each of you will get this extra thing. We’ll buy out that equity upfront.’ But now if you’re paying six, seven, eight billion dollars, whatever it is for an expansion team, why would I then also want to sweeten the pot for every owner to buy their media rights too or not get media rights for myself? I think it’s a real problem.”
That, however, doesn’t necessarily mean that a market like Seattle won’t be getting a team.
Simmons proceeded to point out the potential for team relocation, with the New Orleans Pelicans standing out as the most obvious candidate. The Pelicans’ current lease at the Smoothie King is set to expire in 2029, leaving the door open for the franchise to consider its options elsewhere.
“I don’t mean to start panic on New Orleans basketball — I’m also not sure there’s enough of a fanbase in place to even care that much,” Simmons said. “This is an experiment that has not worked for 50-plus years in New Orleans with professional basketball. And if you and I owned a team and they asked us what we thought and I was like, ‘well we definitely have enough players to go to 32 teams. That doesn’t mean we should. We’re making so much money from the media rights, I’m not even sure what you could give me back that would make it worth it.'”
As far as possible destinations, Simmons specifically highlighted Seattle, Las Vegas and Mexico City. He and Lowe also called attention to Silver’s recent comments regarding the NBA’s presence in Europe and how that might reduce the league’s desire to expand stateside.
“The league is just so much deeper,” Simmons reiterated. “And I wonder [if] part of the reason you don’t do expansion here is because you’re thinking, well maybe if we have some sort of Europe thing, maybe we need a little more talent that way.”
As he pointed out to David Aldridge earlier this week, there’s no reason to think that Simmons’ original information wasn’t correct; the circumstances just appear to have changed. One way or another, it appears some sort of movement is likely coming to the NBA.
About Ben Axelrod
Ben Axelrod is a veteran of the sports media landscape, having most recently worked for NBC's Cleveland affiliate, WKYC. Prior to his time in Cleveland, he covered Ohio State football and the Big Ten for outlets including Cox Media Group, Bleacher Report, Scout and Rivals.