Colorado quarterback Shedeur Sanders (2) warms up during the 4th quarter between the Kansas Jayhawks and the Colorado Buffaloes at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Credit: Nick Tre. Smith-Imagn Images

After being hyped for months as one of the top prospects in the 2025 NFL Draft, Colorado quarterback Shedeur Sanders crashed out of the first round, a stunning slide for someone who, not long ago, was seemingly in contention for the No. 1 overall pick.

But should it have been?

Was Shedeur Sanders really a top draft prospect, or was this Bronny James 2.0?

In fairness to Sheduer, he was a much more highly touted NFL projection than Bronny ever was. Bronny James was a borderline NBA Draft selection, and when he was picked by the Los Angeles Lakers, it was widely understood that the only reason for it was so that he could play on the same NBA team as his father. His Round 2 selection didn’t stop him from becoming the most talked about player in last year’s NBA Draft, but we all knew what was really happening going into the event.

Even though Shedeur Sanders also has a famous father and also produces a media frenzy, he has been viewed by nearly all NFL draftniks and analysts alike as a top quarterback prospect in the 2025 class. That’s not to say that his NFL future has gone unquestioned. Anonymous executives and scouts have criticized Sanders throughout the entire draft process, and much of it has seemed to go too far, venturing into unfair territory.

But it’s not an overstatement to say everyone missed on this. The reality facing Shedeur Sanders in the actual NFL versus the media, experts, and even sportsbooks could not have been more different.

If you look at various mock drafts throughout the cycle, Sanders was routinely pegged for the top overall pick even after the college football season in December. NFL.com’s Bucky Brooks had him going to the Titans first overall on January 29th as just one example.

As the draft process fully moved into motion, he was still a consensus Top 10 selection. There are quite literally hundreds of mocks online projecting it. Mel Kiper’s debut mock draft at ESPN had him at #3 to the Giants on January 22. NFL Network draft expert Daniel Jeremiah had him at #6 overall to the Raiders in his first mock on January 25. So did Matt Miller on February 3. Joel Klatt put him Sanders #1 on February 12, albeit in a trade with the New York Giants.

But even in the days leading up to the draft, Sanders was still rated highly in mock drafts. Field Yates had him going third on April 2 as just one example. However, most mock drafts began to slot Shedeur Sanders at #9 to the New Orleans Saints, especially after an injury to Derek Carr, which threatened his 2025 season, was made public. According to the Mock Draft Database website, the consensus was that Sanders would land with the Saints.

Ultimately, the Saints would pass on him for Texas offensive lineman Kelvin Banks. The Steelers did likewise at No. 21, opting for Oregon defensive tackle Derrick Harmon. And when the Giants traded back into Round 1 for Jaxon Dart, not Sanders, at pick No. 25, his fate was sealed.

Seeing a miss this bad from the prognosticators and projectors is incredibly rare. But as much as Mel Kiper became the conductor of the Shedeur Sanders hype train on Thursday night, incredulous that everyone would overlook his No. 5 overall prospect, this miss belonged to everyone.

Even the sportsbooks were completely off the mark. When betting for the NFL Draft opened, he was the favorite to be drafted first overall. And up until just a day before the draft, Sanders’ over/under draft prop was still at 8.5 on ESPN Bet around the Saints’ selection.

As reality began to set in that Sanders’ stock was falling, it quickly moved to 21.5, with the Steelers now set as the moving target. Even by mid-afternoon on draft day, it was set at 14.5 at DraftKings.

Clearly, there was an incredible disconnect the size of the Grand Canyon in how the NFL world evaluated Shedeur Sanders and how the outside world did.

So how did it happen? Is it a case of all the attention being paid to the University of Colorado, where they played so many games on national television? Were we falling in love too much with the narrative of the turnaround and overstating just how talented of a quarterback he was?

Or was it simply a case of groupthink, with the early voices having high opinions of Sanders’ draft stock, that led the entire industry to follow suit to avoid being pilloried as an outlier?

The truth is that it’s probably a case of all of the above.

And in addition to that, Deion Sanders has so many friends and former colleagues in the NFL media world that this could have been a case of seeing his son’s NFL projection through rose colored glasses. Maybe if Shedeur’s last name was Sampson instead of Sanders we wouldn’t have lived through all of this. That is what Peter Schrager hinted at in a podcast appearance this week with Bill Simmons, foreshadowing what was to come.

“Deion had a lot of people that he has done work with and works with in the media. So I think there’s been a little bit of sensitivity of being negative on Shedeur and I don’t know if it’s helped Shedeur in the long run. Because now if Shedeur doesn’t go in the first 20 picks, it’s this great slide. But you know Deion worked for CBS, Deion worked for NFL Network for many years. Deion has obviously great relationships with Fox and he’s got a show on Tubi, he’s got a documentary on Amazon. Like, we all love Deion who worked in the media in any spot with him. And like, I worked with Deion at NFL Network, he’s amazing and he’s great.  So I think this whole lead up to the draft, the people who have been talking about the draft are careful. I don’t know if that’s done him any favors if there is a slide in the draft.”

[…]

“It’s a lot safer just to say, ‘ah yea we like Shedeur.’ But when the rubber hits the road, who’s gonna be there answering the questions as to why is he slipping out?”

If enough people say that Shedeur Sanders is a top NFL Draft prospect, whether it is a favor to Deion Sanders or because they like the family personally, then everyone is going to believe it. And in a year where the quarterback class was seen as historically weak, it was only natural that the most prominent celebrity figure in the draft would see his stock skyrocket, whether it was actually warranted or not. In pro wrestling parlance, since we just lived through WrestleMania, perhaps it was a case of the industry working itself into a shoot.

However, it’s also a warning to the media world because something was missed here in a significant way. Draft experts must find a way for their talent evaluations and views on prospects to align more closely with those of actual NFL scouts and front offices. If for no other reason than it would better serve fans with more accurate information and better serve the players themselves.

Even though it makes for compelling content, there are no winners when someone who was touted so highly falls so dramatically on draft night. And it means that everyone needs to go back to the drawing board for the 2026 NFL Draft season.