The exclusive negotiating window between UFC and ESPN officially expired on Tuesday. As has long been the expectation from both sides, it did so without a deal.
As it prepares to hit the open market, the TKO-owned promotion will surely find plenty of suitors in what could very well mark the most significant sports media rights deal until the entirety of the MLB package becomes available following the 2028 season. Six years after many saw ESPN’s five-year, $1.5 billion deal with UFC as an overpay, the fight league is looking to double that deal and it’s not unrealistic to think that it could land $1 billion annually.
Of course, it takes two to tango and whether UFC can actually make good on its ambitious media rights aspirations will ultimately be a matter of dollars and sense for all involved. But at this point, one thing is clear: there will be no shortage of interested parties. With that in mind, let’s handicap where UFC will land in its next media rights deal.
ESPN +200 (implied odds: 33%)
UFC’s most interesting prospective partner may also be its current one.
On the one hand, there are plenty of reasons to think that the UFC-ESPN partnership has run its course. While both sides of played nice publicly, it’s been clear that UFC hasn’t been happy with certain aspects of the deal, particularly on the technical side. Conversely, ESPN can’t be satisfied with the lack of star power it’s received on most of its UFC cards, perhaps best evidenced by Conor McGregor and Jon Jones combining for six total fights over the course of the five-year deal, with McGregor’s most recent one coming in 2021.
On the other hand, despite their differences, ESPN and UFC need each other.
OK, “need” might be strong, but it would be tough to argue that the partnership hasn’t been mutually beneficial. ESPN’s promotion has given UFC unprecedented mainstream appeal. Meanwhile, UFC pay-per-views have served as ESPN+’s signature offering, a significant status when considering the impending launch of ESPN’s direct-to-consumer streaming service later this year.
ESPN may not remain the exclusive home of UFC programming this time around, but it would hardly be a surprise if the world’s top MMA promotion maintained some sort of presence on the Worldwide Leader moving forward. Whether that’s with pay-per-views, UFC Fight Night cards or Dana White’s Contender Series remains to be seen. But there’s simply too much to gain for both sides to rule out the possibility of this partnership continuing.
Netflix +120 (implied odds: 45%)
At this point, UFC’s fit on Netflix seems more obvious than its current presence on ESPN.
Not only does the event-centric nature of UFC make it an ideal match for Netflix’s push into live sports rights, but TKO already has a preexisting relationship with the streamer via WWE. Netflix is also expected to play a role in TKO’s impending boxing promotion, another sign of the two sides’ aligned objectives.
Presumably, Netflix would only be interested in adding UFC’s monthly pay-per-views, which would leave TKO to shop the rest of the promotion’s offerings elsewhere, mirroring how the company handled WWE’s media rights with Netflix, Comcast and The CW. Perhaps the biggest potential obstacle is whether ESPN would insist on keeping the pay-per-views, which could force UFC to decide between the present and future of sports media rights.
For now, however, it would be fairly surprising if UFC didn’t help grow TKO’s partnership with Netflix during this round of negotiations. In other words, get this one at plus-money from our imaginary sportsbook while you can.
Warner Bros. Discovery +670 (implied odds: 13%)
Of the most obvious suitors, the biggest wild card comes in the form of Warner Bros. Discovery. While WBD might not carry the same cachet as ESPN or Netflix, it’s clearly an active player when it comes to sports media rights as it continues to fill its NBA-sized void with a hodgepodge of assets.
It’s also worth noting that WBD possesses the type of versatility that UFC covets between its linear channels (TNT and TBS) and streaming service (Max). One potential hiccup could come in the form of its currents rights deal with All Elite Wrestling. But it’s also easy to envision a world where TKO would enjoy UFC overshadowing WWE’s top rival on WBD airwaves.
Despite its apparent interest, WBD isn’t a likely destination, but it could help fill out whatever’s left of UFC’s rights deal in one shape or another. While it’s hard to imagine WBD being UFC’s exclusive home the way ESPN is now, it’s also not far fetched to think that Fight Night and Contenders Series could become a part of the TNT Sports family while the pay-per-views reside elsewhere.
Amazon +1150 (implied odds: 8%)
To this point, Amazon hasn’t been mentioned as frequently as any of the other names of this least. Nevertheless, the global commerce giant has already expressed outright interest in acquiring UFC rights.
“You know what Dana [White] and that team, I mean, that’s an incredible success story,” Amazon Prime Video’s Global Head of Sports, Jay Marine, told CNBC in January. “They’ve grown that into just an incredibly valuable franchise, incredibly passionate fan base. I have huge respect for them over there, and if that comes to market, I think they’re an exclusive window right now, we’d be very interested in taking a look as I expect every broadcaster would.”
Outside of a few exceptions, Amazon has largely been more bark than bite when it comes to acquiring live sports right. But between its explicit interest, deep pockets and established platform, the idea of UFC pay-per-views on Prime Video shouldn’t be discounted.
The field +9900 (implied odds: 1%)
NBC? Fox? CBS? YouTube? The CW? Rumble? In theory, they all have to be mentioned. But for now, it’d be surprising if UFC’s next media rights deal wasn’t comprised by the partners above, whether it’s exclusively or via a combination of the group.