The increasing quality of teams on Amazon’s Thursday Night Football is upsetting ESPN executives. As a result, ESPN may not agree to a percentage increase comparable to the likely 50-60% jump CBS is poised to pay, according to a report by CNBC.
The NFL has begun negotiating new broadcast agreements well before its contractual opt-outs hit following the 2029 and 2030 seasons. CBS is furthest along in negotiations, which currently sit at “a bid-ask spread midpoint” between 50% and 60%, per the CNBC report. In essence, CBS is asking for a rights fee increase on the low-end of that range or below, while the NFL is asking on the high-end of that range or above.
CBS currently pays an average of $2.1 billion per year for NFL rights. A 50% increase would up the network’s annual bill by over one billion dollars.
While the NFL’s negotiations with ESPN have not yet started, CNBC suggests that Disney executives would resist a similar price increase.
“A 50% increase would mean ESPN would pay more than $4 billion for that package — a number Disney would likely balk at,” the report reads. CNBC’s Alex Sherman reiterated this point during a podcast appearance earlier this week.
Disney believes that Prime Video’s Thursday Night Football package has improved relative to its own Monday Night Football package as the NFL continues to award TNF better games, diminishing the value of its own deal.
The report represents another example of the NFL’s current broadcast partners signaling they will not accept a deal at any price. Earlier this month, Fox CEO Lachlan Murdoch said at a conference that he believes his network is already paying “market price” for its package of NFL games, a suggestion that Fox seemingly doesn’t think it should have to pay much more than it already does.
In addition to the Thursday Night Football gripe, the NFL has been systematically increasing the number of standalone windows in which games air, further serving to diminish the quality of its traditional packages. The league is now committed to putting games on Christmas with a deal for Netflix and has recently been reported to be looking for bidders for a Thanksgiving Eve game. The NFL wants these windows to get the best games possible, which leaves fewer quality games for the rest of its partners.
But the league knows it’ll have to strike a balance; it does not want to drive its traditional partners away from the negotiating table. The NFL wants to keep networks like ESPN and CBS financially viable and competing for rights alongside streaming services like Netflix.
Even if ESPN and the NFL are unable to reach a new agreement, ESPN’s current NFL contract is locked in through the 2030 season no matter what. That gives ESPN some leverage with negotiations. Of course, the NFL has lots of leverage too. It could continue to reduce the quality of ESPN’s Monday Night Football games. It could also place its playoff inventory in less favorable windows after ESPN’s guaranteed Monday night Wild Card timeslot expired last season.
Regardless of who has more leverage, there will be a new dynamic the next time ESPN and the NFL sit down to negotiate media rights. The league now owns a 10% stake in ESPN, which should provide further incentive to strike a deal.
About Manny Soloway
Manny Soloway is a Iowa based writer focusing on TV ratings. He is also the founder of the TV Media Blog substack.