ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) is the way the Worldwide Leader in Sports produces its own analytical database to provide context for discussions and debates about who is better than who in the football world. It’s been around for a decade. But throughout the 2025 season, in both college and pro football, it has produced mystifying results, drawing constant questioning from flummoxed football fans on social media.
Let’s start with college football. The ESPN FPI ranks Ohio State No. 1 and Indiana No. 2, which is where most agree. Oregon is a surprising #3, but if the FPI is rating the Big Ten that strongly, maybe it makes sense from an analytical point of view since Oregon’s only loss was to the team ranked directly above them.
But after that, things go completely off the rails.
Here are a few highlights:
- Texas A&M is undefeated and ranked behind Notre Dame after beating the Fighting Irish in South Bend.
- Utah is ahead of Texas Tech despite also losing head-to-head at home.
- Penn State is ranked #21 after firing their coach, posting a 3-6 record, and failing to beat a Power 4 school.
- LSU is ranked #22 after also firing their coach and losing 4 out of 5 games.
- Auburn is ranked #24 after also firing their coach (sense the pattern?) and losing 6 of 7 games, including scoring 3 points at home against Kentucky.
Lest you think that this is just a college football thing, ESPN’s FPI rankings for the NFL also carry one giant question mark – pun intended. The 2-8 New York Giants are ranked 15th in ESPN’s NFL power index, after just firing head coach Brian Daboll. They are ranked one spot behind the 8-2 New England Patriots. They are also ranked five spots ahead of the 6-3 Chicago Bears, who just beat them on Sunday.
ESPN provides explainers on the methodology and reasoning behind both their college and pro FPI systems, so at least there is some transparency. Both systems say they are all about the data. However, the college system takes past seasons and performances into account, and that weight slowly decreases throughout the season. That could explain why top-ranked preseason teams like Penn State and LSU maintain their high rankings even though their performances on the field fall well short of expectations.
ESPN is also clear that the models are predictive, comparing them to how Las Vegas would set lines and rank teams in a neutral-field environment. It’s also completely data-driven and not dependent on wins and losses. So in some regard, you have to respect ESPN for continuing to put out these rankings, especially in college, even though the network knows it’s going to be the subject of some mockery for its detachment from reality. Either you trust the analytics or you don’t; there’s no way to do a half-measure if you’re going to publish something like this.
But given some of these results in 2025, it may be worth at least opening up the hood and taking a deep dive into the Football Power Index to make sure it’s still working as intended.
About Matt Yoder