The Smashing Machine debuted at the Venice Film Festival over the weekend, as critics and Hollywooders finally got a look at Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson’s role as UFC legend Mark Kerr.
As early as the first stills from the film, Johnson’s performance had all the makings of an Oscar turn. Hollywood loves when an action or comedy star goes serious. It also loves physical transformations and, for whatever reason, combat sports movies. Check, check, check. Add in a prestigious director in Benny Safdie, a fall premiere date, and the A24 co-sign, and there was real momentum building toward Venice.
The floodgates opened in the fall’s first big festival, where the film earned a 15-minute ovation and the Venice artistic director reportedly said he “wouldn’t be surprised” to see Johnson get an Oscar nom. The Associated Press marked the unofficial start to Johnson’s campaign with an article entitled “Dwayne Johnson, Oscar contender?” These people are not wasting any time.
Something about famous men getting punched in the face and succumbing to addiction makes the Academy buzz. Between Rocky, The Fighter, The Wrestler, and Creed, this is well-worn territory. It wasn’t exactly the most risky experiment if The Rock wanted to get back to Serious Acting, even if he sells it as such, telling reporters that “I’ve been very fortunate to have the career that I’ve had and make the films that I have, but there was just this voice inside of me, this little voice, like what if I can do more.”
Actors who take these roles usually are pulling from real personal history. Fighting and sports give them a lane to manifest the Ls they took in life on-screen. The best The Rock can muster is that he… didn’t like being so muscular or relegated only to movies that made gobs of money?
Famously, Johnson knows what the people want. He captivated massive arenas for a good half-decade in the WWF, earning the nickname “The People’s Champ” as a heel so popular that you couldn’t tell he was one. As an action hero, Johnson starred in some of the most popular movies of our time. Famous, relatable, and handsome with a traditional American story, by midway through last decade people wanted him to run for president. Just watch what happens when he gets into an awards race.
All of this is likely why betting markets are flocking to Johnson, whose forecast for a Best Actor nomination has risen 14 points on Kalshi since the premiere.
Awards are contrived and symbolic. As someone who chooses to care about them anyway, all I ask is that Johnson earn this.
His entire career serves as proof that he tends to dominate at everything he touches. You can already smell what he’s cooking. With arguably the longest runway of any potential nominee due to the hype around The Smashing Machine, Johnson has now bagged a few money viral videos in Venice. All that’s left is for him to charm his way through some late-night appearances and YouTube interview shows, maybe open up for a long profile. If you think he’s going to lose a a campaign to the dude from The Bear, you’re out of your mind.
They’ve ginned up far worse “adversity” strawmen for far worse guys. The Rock doesn’t seem like a bad guy. Perhaps it just chafes me to think that it would be so easy to game this system. Without having seen The Smashing Machine, it appears from afar as if The Rock is sliding back into good graces simply by playing a version of himself and cutting an emotionally touching promo.
The Rock exists right at the line where earnestness is cute instead of cringe. We’ve seen him turn babyface, sing with his daughter, and beat up a bunch of guys. Everybody likes The Rock, even if nobody really knows him.
The Smashing Machine felt like a chance for him to take a swing and risk getting trashed. Now it looks as if Johnson is skipping the hard part, and Hollywood is instructing us to appreciate him.
About Brendon Kleen
Brendon is a Media Commentary staff writer at Awful Announcing. He has also covered basketball and sports business at Front Office Sports, SB Nation, Uproxx and more.