Analysis shows free NFL games account for just 33%, not 87% of all broadcasts

Anyone paying close attention to the NFL’s recent public relations blitz about its TV deals, a direct response to multiple federal investigations into the league’s practices, now knows that approximately 87% of NFL games are broadcast on free, over-the-air networks such as Fox, CBS, ABC, and NBC.

That statistic is true, to a point. Left unaccounted for are the many overlapping games in the 1 p.m. and 4:25 p.m. ET windows. Sure, there is a potpourri of NFL games on CBS and Fox every Sunday afternoon in the fall, but which games one receives is entirely dependent on where one lives. NFL fans are only receiving three games most Sunday afternoons if they’re relying on an antenna: a CBS and Fox game in the early window, and one game on CBS or Fox in the later-afternoon window. If a fan wants to watch a Sunday afternoon game that hasn’t been assigned to their local market, they’ll need to purchase NFL Sunday Ticket, the expensive out-of-market package held by YouTube.

Anthony Crupi of Sportico did the math on exactly what this means for the NFL’s “87%” statistic, and, as one might reasonably surmise, it doesn’t look great for the league. Per Crupi, when accounting for the fact that most of the NFL’s free-to-air games overlap and thus only in-market games are available to fans for free, the percentage of NFL games available at no cost to consumers is closer to 33%.

Of course, for many NFL fans who live in the region of their favorite team, this isn’t much of a problem. An Eagles fan living in Philadelphia will always be able to watch their Birds for free, even when the team is playing in a cable- or streaming-exclusive game. 100% of NFL games are shown for free within a team’s local market, full stop.

The issues arise when out-of-market fans want to watch a particular game, say, a Steelers fan in Miami. That fan won’t get anywhere close to 87% of Steelers games for free since they’ll often be stuck watching whatever game the Dolphins are playing in the same window.

This dynamic spells out exactly what we’ve always known about NFL broadcasting; it’s great if you’re a fan of the local team, and very expensive if you’re not.

In total, Crupi estimates that 89 of 272 NFL games are available to fans free of charge, assuming they have an antenna that receives signals from their local Fox, CBS, NBC, and ABC affiliates.

However, it is fair to offer a bit of pushback on that 33% figure as well. Realistically, fans don’t want to watch all 272 games; they want to watch the games they care about. (Sure, there are the sickos that will watch eight games at once via Sunday Ticket, but most well-adjusted football fans are down to watch one, maybe two games at a time.) The problem is that the NFL only offers an all-or-nothing approach. There’s no solution for the Steelers fan from Miami other than to buy every single out-of-market Sunday afternoon game. Until the NFL begins offering team-based subscriptions, this will remain a problem.

Even though 33% of its games are available for free on broadcast television, the NFL still paces well ahead of most other major professional sports leagues. But it’s important to have some perspective. Yes, technically speaking, 87% of NFL games are broadcast on television. The only problem is that most of those games are inaccessible without an expensive Sunday Ticket subscription.