Texas Longhorns quarterback Arch Manning was long considered as the consensus top pick in the 2026 NFL Draft. But then the 2025 season happened. Arch flattened out in his first full season as a starter as the Longhorns began as the preseason #1 ranked team in America and ended it out of the College Football Playoff.
But in spite of the youngest Manning’s up and down season at Texas, Dan Orlovsky is still a believer.
Arch Manning is returning for another season at Texas in 2026 and foregoing an opportunity to enter the draft. With him staying in school, Heisman winner Fernando Mendoza is likely to take Arch’s place as the odds-on favorite for the top pick (even though he still has his skeptics, too).
But in spite of the hammering Manning took in the press this year, even being dubbed a “failure,” the ESPN quarterback guru is still a believer.
Earlier this fall, Dan Orlovsky said that Arch Manning would be the top pick in the 2027 NFL Draft. He went one step further on Wednesday’s edition of The Dan Patrick Show in saying that Manning would still be the first overall selection if he came out this spring.
“Not even close. He would be the #1 overall pick,” Orlovsky firmly stated. “Arch Manning is kind of like the throwback 1970 quarterback with modern day training and nutrition. I’m a huge fan of this guy. He’s physically remarkably gifted. He’s intelligent when it comes to the football understanding of speed and space and all that. I think he’s wired the right way.”
Dan Orlovsky isn’t necessarily alone on this island. Nate Tice has also come out and said the same about Arch Manning, that in spite of his struggles this year, he would still be worthy of the first overall selection.
While there are still some voices who are incredibly supportive, his performances did not match the otherworldly hype. Texas finished 9-3 on the outside looking in at the final College Football Playoff rankings. And in their three losses, Manning threw 4 TDs and 4 INTs. On the season, he was 17th in ESPN’s QBR rankings between BYU’s Bear Bachmeier and USF’s Byrum Brown. Neither one of them has been touted as the second coming at the quarterback position, though.
However, Dan Orlovsky believes that Arch Manning can turn the negatives from the 2025 season into a positive for next year and his NFL career. If anything, he believes the intense scrutiny and skepticism can help him refine his elite physical tools.
“When you watch him on a sideline he’s ultra competitive. I think he’s weathered a lot. He’s going into the NFL, when he does, he’s going to have weathered so many different storms. And we know that’s a huge deal. So many different finger pointings and adversity and hype and falling short and getting punched and getting back up. You got to have that skill. You have to have that trait to be elite outside of the physical things. So yea, he would be #1. Runaway. Runaway,” Orlovsky affirmed.
Arch Manning still has plenty of time to justify the hype. He may very well win the Heisman Trophy, be the top pick in the 2027 draft, and become the greatest quarterback who ever lived. He still has the opportunity to prove the likes of Dan Orlovsky right. But most people are likely going to take more of a wait-and-see approach with the heir to the Manning throne.
About Matt Yoder