Dan Orlovsky knows what it’s like to watch a generational talent slip away. He was there in Indianapolis when the Colts drafted Andrew Luck to replace an injured Peyton Manning. He saw the writing on the wall long before Luck stunned the football world by retiring at 29.
Now he’s watching it happen again.
“Honestly, it should impact all of the NFL, because it feels like Joe Burrow is trending towards becoming this generation’s Andrew Luck, in a way,” Orlovsky said on Monday’s NFL Live after Burrow suffered what’s now confirmed to be a Grade 3 turf toe injury that will sideline him for at least three months.
The parallels between Luck and Joe Burrow aren’t something Orlovsky made up out of thin air, either.
Both threw for remarkably similar numbers through the first five seasons of their respective NFL careers. Luck had 19,078 yards with 132 touchdowns in 70 games, while Burrow has 19,001 yards with 140 touchdowns in 69 games.
The numbers that matter most, though, tell a far more troubling story.
A side-by-side comparison of their NFL careers shows Luck faced pressure on 28% of his dropbacks, while Burrow has dealt with it on 27%. Both quarterbacks have absorbed contact on roughly one in five passing plays. But here’s where the alarm bells should be deafening: Luck was sacked 174 times across six seasons. Burrow has already been dropped 201 times, and he’s only in his sixth year. The difference is that Burrow is absorbing more punishment in less time than the guy whose career ended because of accumulated damage.
The Bengals’ offensive line has ranked in the bottom quartile of the league according to pass block win rate in each of Burrow’s five full seasons. This year, they’re ranked 28th through two weeks.
Luck played with shoulder pain for most of 2015 and 2016, suffered a lacerated kidney that ended his 2015 season, missed all of 2017 following shoulder surgery, and dealt with a mysterious calf-ankle injury that never felt right. He also felt the slow erosion of joy from mounting injuries and the mental toll of knowing another hit is always coming.
Burrow’s rap sheet is starting to read similarly. His rookie season ended when he tore his ACL, MCL, PCL, and meniscus. A calf injury in 2023 limited his effectiveness before a wrist injury ended his season. Now turf toe joins the list.
Cincinnati has had five years to learn this lesson. Five years of watching its franchise quarterback get pummeled while dragging the team to places it hasn’t been since the 1980s, five years of Burrow showing incredible toughness behind an offensive line that the front office has treated like an afterthought time and time again.
Burrow turns 29 in December. Luck was 29 when he walked away.
The Bengals can probably survive with Jake Browning for a few months. They can hope Burrow comes back healthy for a playoff push. But suppose they keep treating pass protection like it’s optional. In that case, they’re going to learn what Indianapolis discovered in 2019, which is that sometimes elite quarterbacks decide the game isn’t worth the pain anymore.
Luck runs Stanford’s football program now. He seems genuinely content helping college players while staying far away from the violence that defined his NFL career. The guilt about leaving his teammates lingers, but he’s made peace with walking away.
Joe Burrow shouldn’t have to make that choice. But the Bengals keep pushing him toward it.
About Sam Neumann
Since the beginning of 2023, Sam has been a staff writer for Awful Announcing and The Comeback. A 2021 graduate of Temple University, Sam is a Charlotte native, who currently calls Greenville, South Carolina his home. He also has a love/hate relationship with the New York Mets and Jets.