Greg Olsen has been ahead of the curve on NFL strategy shifts lately.
A few weeks back, he called out how teams should rethink field goals because of the new kickoff rules. Now he’s identifying another trend, and the data backs him up.
Sam Bruchhaus presented research from SumerSports on his and Lindsay Rhodes’ show this week, showing that when offenses use multiple tight ends — 12 or 13 personnel — passing efficiency doubles while run efficiency against base defense halves.
“Are defensive coordinators bearing down too hard on the run when 12 and 13 personnel are out there?” Bruchhaus asked. “Can offensive coordinators — like Ben Johnson, who was kind of the leader of the snake on this one — are they trotting out multiple tight ends just to get into base, so they can pass rather than necessarily run?”
“This is absolutely what’s happening,” Olsen wrote.
The concept is pretty straightforward. When offenses put two or three tight ends on the field, defenses see run. They get into base personnel with extra linebackers to stop what they think is coming. The problem is that’s exactly what the offense wants. They’re not trying to run against that look. They’re trying to throw against linebackers who can’t cover modern tight ends.
“Teams should stop matching personnel in neutral situations and play the down and distance instead,” Olsen continued. “Everything is about generating an advantage to THROW THE BALL!!”
Bruchhaus pointed to teams like the Colts, Bills, Seahawks, and Packers who have really leaned into using personnel diversity this way. They’re not running more because they believe in the run. They’re using multiple tight end sets to manipulate defenses into base personnel, then throwing the ball and watching the efficiency numbers double.
“To put it simply,” Olsen wrote. “Rushing attempts have gone up not [because] offenses want to run it more, but rather DEFENSES want you to run it more.”
That’s the game right now. Defenses are so concerned about stopping the run out of heavy personnel that they’re creating massive advantages in the passing game. Those like Ben Johnson — now the head coach of the Chicago Bears — have seemingly figured this out. Put an extra tight end on the field, watch the defense add a linebacker, and then throw the ball to that tight end running a route against a linebacker who has no chance of covering him.
The efficiency doubling isn’t random. It’s the result of defenses making predictable adjustments based on personnel rather than situation. They see multiple tight ends and assume run, then get torched when the offense does what it actually wanted to do all along.
Olsen’s point is that defensive coordinators need to stop matching personnel and start defending down-and-distance. If it’s second-and-7, defend second-and-7. Don’t get into base defense just because the offense has three tight ends on the field. That’s giving away the advantage before the ball is even snapped.
About Sam Neumann
Since the beginning of 2023, Sam has been a staff writer for Awful Announcing and The Comeback. A 2021 graduate of Temple University, Sam is a Charlotte native, who currently calls Greenville, South Carolina his home. He also has a love/hate relationship with the New York Mets and Jets.