It seems over the course of several months, leverage in the interplay between the NFL and its broadcast partners over media rights has slowly shifted towards the legacy broadcast networks.
Of course, part of that shift has happened in no small part due to Fox utilizing the levers of the federal government via its close relationship with the current administration. But, for the NFL, it seems there’s also been a realization that now might not be the best time to exert maximum pressure on the legacy players.
No doubt, viewers continue to flock to streaming services like Prime Video or Netflix in larger numbers, but viewership data shows that, at least for NFL programming, free-to-air broadcast television remains king.
Beyond the viewership aspect of the equation, there’s the question of how the NFL can create the most robust market for its media rights. And increasingly, one could argue that it’s in the best interest of the league to keep broadcast networks like CBS, Fox, and NBC in a strong position so demand for NFL rights remains high.
At this point, it’s a borderline immutable fact that broadcast networks need NFL games to survive. NFL programming, by some estimates, account for approximately 60% of the retransmission fees broadcasters are able to charge distributors and local affiliates. Retransmission fees are the lifeblood of national broadcasters; without the NFL, their businesses become a shell of what they are currently.
That type of desperation is great for the NFL. Broadcast networks will always be willing to pay the league top dollar, so long as their businesses remain strong enough to afford it. The same cannot be said for streaming services. NFL games are far from existential for companies like Amazon or Apple; in fact, they’re an afterthought. Without the desperate broadcast networks in the market, there’s no guarantee that the tech giants would fork over the level of rights fees the NFL desires.
For The Athletic’s Andrew Marchand, this is a key point in the NFL’s ongoing effort to renegotiate its media rights deals.
“I would say that the NFL has to be careful as they go forward, you know, forgetting all the government noise. I just think that the power the NFL has over the networks is important for them long term,” Marchand suggested on a recent episode of The Varsity podcast with Puck’s John Ourand.
“I think it helps the NFL to be on broadcast,” Marchand continued. “The numbers are still there. You know, maybe eventually Amazon Prime or Netflix or someone can deliver bigger numbers. We have not seen that yet. It takes time to adapt, takes time for people to get used to, but you’re still seeing bigger numbers on the networks. And that’s something that I think if I’m the NFL, I like that power structure because you go five, ten, 15 years out and you kind of essentially ruin the broadcast networks because you charged them too much or they had to relinquish the NFL because the the streamers were willing to pay more. I just think you’re leaving yourself in a little bit of a precarious situation that YouTube, Amazon and whoever else, Netflix, that they’re always just going to pay, because they don’t necessarily need it. And so they could one day just decide we don’t want it. And then where are you?”
This is the key issue the NFL might face down the line. The NFL needs the streamers more than the streamers need the NFL. For the first time in eons, the NFL could face negotiations where a potential broadcast partner has a credible ability to walk away.
That’s why, at least for now, it seems to be in the NFL’s best interest to continue to lean on legacy broadcast networks, which could limit the magnitude of increase the league can demand from those partners as it attempts to renegotiate deals before its opt-out clauses hit at the end of the decade.
About Drew Lerner
Drew Lerner is a staff writer for Awful Announcing and an aspiring cable subscriber. He previously covered sports media for Sports Media Watch. Future beat writer for the Oasis reunion tour.