Media analyst: NFL could ‘tier’ media rights by quality of game

Discussion surrounding the NFL’s media rights future is heating up much quicker than expected.

Earlier this week, in an interview with CNBC, NFL commissioner Roger Goodell floated the idea of renegotiating new media rights agreements with the league’s current broadcast partners as early as next year, well before the league’s option following the 2029-30 season. An early negotiation could portend a level of stability since all of the league’s current media partners would need to be on board with new deals.

But what is the nature of those deals? That’s where the rubber would meet the road. It’s far from certain that a new set of media rights agreements would adhere to the current model: three nights of standalone primetime packages, with Fox and CBS splitting Sunday afternoons. One media analyst speculates something different. Something that the NFL could learn from its friends overseas in the English Premier League.

Appearing on a recent episode of The Main Event with Andrew Marchand podcast, MoffettNathanson analyst Robert Fishman explained.

MoffettNathanson’s Robert Fishman says the NFL could sell its TV packages differently than it has, pointing to the Premier League as a model. pic.twitter.com/GfQHLcUpwn

— Andrew Marchand (@AndrewMarchand) September 25, 2025

“We can see how the NFL almost even starts to restructure some of these packages,” Fishman begins. “To have Netflix there as a true competitive bidder, we expect that to happen. Even having YouTube at the table, again, gives them a little bit of a taste, as we just saw, and we expect that to build out over the next couple of years.

“So, the ability of restructuring the packages so it’s not just the NFC package and the AFC package traditionally, or even just a Thursday night package. I think that there’s different ways, and we’ve thought about maybe using a similar template that the Premier League has and having maybe the Tier A type of games and the Tier B and the Tier C. How the traditional broadcasters are going to compete against those types of bids, you have to think the NFL is going to look to continue to have them there, but it might just be lower-quality games that they eventually end up with.”

This type of model is similar to what Awful Announcing predicted would happen when the NFL next takes its rights to market. What’s unclear is whether the legacy broadcasters would be on board with such a disruptive change to the status quo in an early negotiation, when they hold more leverage. One would think the legacy broadcasters would at least attempt to hold the line on getting top-quality games if they agreed to renegotiate (read: pay the NFL more money) earlier than the 2029-30 opt-out.

But, eventually, a day will come when networks like Fox and CBS will be unable to compete with tech giants like Amazon, Google, and Netflix. And when it does, will they be willing to settle for the less desirable games or choose to exit the NFL business entirely? Considering even the least desirable NFL game is still better programming than 99.9% of what’s on TV, one would presume the networks would strongly consider taking the lesser inventory.