Why Super Bowl LX viewership will likely decrease

After three consecutive years of increased Super Bowl viewership, it is increasingly possible that a decline is in store for the NFL.

One might expect that Nielsen’s new Big Data measurement, which has generally resulted in increased viewership, would almost guarantee a viewership increase. However, much of Big Data’s benefit comes from the more complete counting of out-of-home viewers. But that isn’t actually new to Big Data; it’s something that was added right before last year’s Super Bowl.

The lack of the Chiefs is also likely to play a factor, but probably not in the way you think. Most other sports are looking to bring in casual sports fans, so a brand like the Yankees in baseball helps a lot. However, the Super Bowl isn’t looking to pull these sports fans; they will almost certainly be watching. The way the NFL gets viewership to increase for the Super Bowl is by getting non-sports fans, people who won’t watch another sports game this year, to watch.

The reason the Chiefs not playing hurts has nothing to do with Patrick Mahomes; it’s much more to do with Travis Kelce. A Swiftie will be more likely to watch the game with a chance of a glimpse of their favorite pop star.

Another interesting factor is the platform on which the game is airing. Last year, Fox streamed the Super Bowl on the free FAST streaming service Tubi. Nielsen recorded viewers on Tubi as part of the final Super Bowl viewership numbers. The game will stream on Peacock, and Nielsen will measure Peacock viewership, I have confirmed. But the lack of a free streaming option only serves to hurt viewership. Even if the effect is marginal, that can have a huge effect when the number we are talking about is in terms of hundreds of millions of viewers.

A more interesting variable is the halftime performance of Bad Bunny. Some have threatened to boycott the Super Bowl over his performance. Many of these people don’t seem to understand that Puerto Rico is part of the United States.

Others say it’s because Bad Bunny isn’t related enough to the “culture” of football. But that’s why the NFL chose him. Not only is he a global superstar, but he draws fans who might otherwise not be interested in the sport. If conservatives really do follow through on the boycott, that could hurt viewership. But Bad Bunny is much more likely to be a benefit to Super Bowl viewership.

Finally, the most unpredictable variable is the quality of the game. For most sports, the quality is what makes or breaks a viewership number. But I wouldn’t expect that to be the case for the Super Bowl. Many people watch the Super Bowl through big parties, which are unlikely to care that much about the quality of the game. Many people at those parties are much more interested in the quality of the commercials. Last year’s Eagles-Chiefs Super Bowl was a blowout, but ended up being the most watched Super Bowl ever.

This year, the NFL just doesn’t have that much going for it in terms of increased viewership. But that also means that decreased viewership isn’t likely a referendum on the Patriots’ soft schedule or Bad Bunny being the halftime performer. Instead, it’s a referendum on the lack of Taylor Swift and free streaming options.