YouTube TV’s dispute with Fox is over, but the real tests are just beginning.
The streaming service has carriage agreements expiring with NBC this month and Disney next month, according to Puck’s John Ourand. And based on how these negotiations typically go — especially with football season starting — these next two fights could determine the future of how we watch sports.
The Fox dispute that just ended was relatively straightforward. YouTube TV wanted to carry Fox channels, Fox wanted to get paid, and eventually they worked it out. However, the upcoming negotiations between NBC and Disney involve much bigger questions about data, control, and what streaming platforms will look like in five years.
Here’s the thing that makes these negotiations different: every major media company now has its own streaming service. NBC has Peacock. Disney has ESPN’s new direct-to-consumer service, which launched last month, as well as Disney+. Fox just launched Fox One. That changes the entire dynamic when carriage disputes happen.
During the Fox standoff, YouTube TV actively encouraged subscribers to sign up for Fox One if Fox channels were to go dark. The service even offered a $10 monthly discount to help offset the cost. It was a strategy that would have been impossible in the traditional cable era, when losing Fox meant you were basically out of luck as a sports fan.
However, YouTube TV can’t exactly instruct subscribers to opt for Peacock and ESPN’s standalone service if those negotiations go awry. Unlike Fox One, which is essentially repackaged Fox programming, Peacock and ESPN’s new offering have exclusive content and critical programming. Peacock has exclusive NFL playoff games and Premier League matches. ESPN’s new service will carry the main ESPN programming that millions of sports fans depend on.
That gives NBC and Disney significantly more leverage than Fox had. If you’re a sports fan and YouTube TV loses NBC, you’re missing Sunday Night Football. If they lose Disney, you’re missing Monday Night Football and a considerable chunk of college sports.
According to Ourand, the money might not even be the biggest issue, though. These negotiations are taking place at a time when streaming services are attempting to establish their long-term business models. Do they want to be independent platforms that compete with each other? Or do they want to become content libraries that reside within larger distributors?
Amazon already offers a feature called Prime Video Channels, which allows you to subscribe to services like Paramount+ directly through its interface. YouTube TV appears to be testing a similar approach with Fox One, based on their recent agreement.
From a consumer standpoint, that model makes sense. Who wants to juggle six different streaming apps when you could access everything through one interface? However, from a business perspective, it means relinquishing direct control over customer relationships and data.
The timing couldn’t be worse for potential blackouts. We’re in the middle of football season, when these disputes typically get resolved quickly because neither side wants to anger sports fans. NBC carries Notre Dame games, Big Ten coverage, and Sunday Night Football. Disney owns ESPN, ABC, and Monday Night Football.
YouTube TV has shown it’s willing to play hardball, though. The service has the backing of Google’s deep pockets, which means it can afford to hold out longer than smaller competitors might. Unlike traditional cable companies, which were utterly dependent on video revenue, YouTube TV is part of a larger ecosystem that generates revenue in other ways.
The broader streaming industry is closely watching these negotiations because they could set precedents for how similar disputes are resolved. If YouTube TV succeeds in integrating NBC and Disney content into its platform, other distributors will likely demand the same treatment.
We’re essentially watching the creation of a new version of the cable bundle, just with different companies in charge. The question is whether streaming services will maintain their independence or become absorbed into larger platforms controlled by tech companies.
YouTube TV subscribers should probably prepare for some potential chaos over the next two months. Unlike the Fox situation, where both sides had strong incentives to reach a deal quickly, NBC and Disney have enough valuable exclusive content to threaten walking away credibly.
The easy part of the streaming revolution is over. Now comes the messy business of figuring out who controls what.
About Sam Neumann
Since the beginning of 2023, Sam has been a staff writer for Awful Announcing and The Comeback. A 2021 graduate of Temple University, Sam is a Charlotte native, who currently calls Greenville, South Carolina his home. He also has a love/hate relationship with the New York Mets and Jets.