Versant stands to be big winner in NFL media rights negotiations

Much of the sports media business hinges on what happens over the next year or two with NFL rights.

The league has made clear it intends to renegotiate its deals well before its contractual opt-out options at the end of the decade. Analysts predict the league could seek to nearly double the value of its current media rights deals, upending the market for other sports properties seeking to secure broadcast revenue increases.

Some networks have already weighed in on what paying more for the NFL would mean to the rest of their sports programming. Fox CEO Lachlan Murdoch recently said the network would look to “rebalance” its portfolio, assuming that paying a higher price for NFL rights would necessitate trimming costs in other areas.

That creates opportunity for a company like Versant, the NBCUniversal spinoff, which owns USA Network and Golf Channel in addition to other cable assets like CNBC and MS NOW.

Versant won’t be getting in the mix for NFL rights; it doesn’t have the money to do so. But the downstream effect of major broadcast networks like Fox reallocating more budget for the NFL at the expense of other leagues means Versant could be a serious player for non-NFL rights when ongoing media rights deals expire.

Take Major League Baseball, for instance. Fox owns the lead MLB package, paying an average of $728.6 million per year to broadcast the World Series, along with other regular-season and postseason inventory. Paramount, after completing its purchase of Warner Bros. Discovery, will own the so-called “B” package for MLB, which includes an LCS each season for an annual price of $535 million. NBC now owns what could be considered a “C” package, including Sunday Night Baseball and the Wild Card round, for $200 million per year.

What’s the common thread between all three of MLB’s primary media partners? They all own major NFL packages, and all of them will likely meaningfully increase their annual NFL spend in the coming years.

Fox has already talked about “rebalancing” its sports portfolio as a result. Paramount needs to find at least $6 billion in “synergies” over the next three years to meet Wall Street’s expectations, or else its debt-saddled purchase of Warner Bros. Discovery could start looking like a fatal error (if it doesn’t already).

Cutting ties with the likes of MLB is an easy way to achieve these financial goals with minimal downside risk to distribution fees, so long as it helps you keep the NFL.

That’s where a company like Versant can jump in. Don’t expect Versant to be airing the World Series in 2029, the first season MLB will operate under brand new broadcast agreements. But purchasing a mid-tier package of games that includes some playoff inventory could be well within the company’s reach.

And while I chose to use MLB as an example, this reality applies to many other leagues as well. NHL broadcast rights end in 2028. Could hockey be a sacrificial lamb for Disney or the bulked-up Paramount to help pay for NFL rights? If so, that’s another league Versant could realistically take a look at. No doubt, Paramount and NBC likely feel they are overpaying for Big Ten rights under the current Fox-dominated arrangement that runs through 2030. Perhaps Versant makes a play for those packages.

There are plenty of possibilities. It all depends on which properties the major networks value enough to keep alongside the NFL and which they feel they can do without.

No matter what, Versant stands to benefit from what gets left behind. And what gets left behind might be of higher quality than many would have ever anticipated.